Fluctuation Analyses
Acomprehensive consideration of uncertainty
is standard in each provided wind report due to the actual
technical guidelines. This analysis includes the uncertainties
associated with the computation and measuring methods in
relation to the determined energy yield over a long time
period. But like weak wind years in the recent past show, it
is just as important to consider a comprehensive risk analysis
to obtain an understanding of the annual irregularities (volatility)
of the wind resource which is especially high in moderate
climate zones.
Simply said:
How sure are we that a predicted long term annual yield can
also be really achieved in the next 2, 5 or 10 operational
years?
AL-PRO determines the probabilities of excess and deviation
with regard to obtaining the calculated long term annual yield
in each desired level (e. g. P50, P75, P90) and for each
desired time period. This analysis is possible for yield
determinations completed by AL-PRO and also for yield
determinations completed by other consulting offices, provided
they have been prepared according to the current standards and
technical guidelines.
In addition we analyze monthly and seasonal yield fluctuations
that can be expected for your wind farm.
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